INPE-EM: LAND COVER CHANGES GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG) EMISSION ESTIMATE
INPE-EM system (INPE - Emission Model) is a service of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) which aims to generate annual estimates of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by land cover change in Brazil in a spatially explicit way. The current system version provides annual estimates of emissions for the Brazilian Amazon based on the PRODES system data.
Estimates are available of 1st Order (assuming the simplification that 100% of the emissions occur at the time of the land cover change) and 2nd Order (which represent the gradual process of liberation and carbon absorption as occurs in fact).
The 2nd Order emissions estimates have an attenuated response in relation to deforestation rate fluctuations (rises and falls), as they carry the influence of historical emissions, i.e. the processes of decomposition/burning of the remaining biomass of deforestation occurred in the years before. Therefore, the decrease of 14% observed by PRODES in the deforestation rate between 2013 and 2014 is immediately captured by the 1st Order, but will be reflected over the next years in the estimates of 2nd Order - combined to the future trajectory of the deforestation rates (increase or decrease or stabilization). Estimates of 2nd Order represent the emission process with greater accuracy and scientific basis. The 1st Order estimates are typically used to report emissions in a simple and intuitive way.
Concerning estimates of net emissions, which combine the 2nd Order emissions to the dynamics of of the secondary vegetation (regrowth/cut), our results indicate an increase in the influence of the growth of secondary vegetation in the carbon balance, due to the decrease in the area of primary forest deforested and maintenance of secondary vegetation area (around 21%, according to the TerraClass system).
In addition to the annual estimates of CO2, we began to produce estimates of CH4, N2O, CO and NOx. We are also making available the results in a spatially disaggregated way, as shown in the map below. The tables and maps are available for download in Excel and shapefile format. The current version of the model source code (for gross emissions estimates) is also being made available, under a GPL license. Please, cite Aguiar et al. (2012) if you use the whole framework in the TerraME modeling environment, or extract part of the code and implement it in another system. And let us know (firstname.lastname@example.org)! We will be glad to hear your feedback!
For compatibility with official estimates of the Brazilian Government emissions, from now on the system will use the biomass data produced for the Brazilian Communications to the UNFCCC, as well as for the purpose of emission reduction estimates (REDD+). Finally, the current version of INPE-EM system presents separately gross and net estimates: (a) gross emissions derived from clear-cut deforestation based on the PRODES system data, (b) net emission estimates considering dynamics of secondary vegetation in deforested areas, based on the TerraCLASS System data and recent literature (Almeida, 2009). In the future, we will be included estimates for other biomes and processes, in particular by Forest Degradation, based on the INPE DEGRAD System.